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This is a useful question because there are lots of situations where running an A/B test to directly measure the effects of an intervention is impractical, unfeasable or unethical. The question these notes will try and answer is how we can reason about the interventional distribution, when we only have access to observational data. The distribution of $Y$ is then given by the interventional distribution When we force people to wear cool hats, we are making an intervention. In the previous example, when we make no intervention on the system, we have an observational distribution of $Y$, conditioned on the fact we observe $X$: This act of forcing a variable to take a certain value is called an "Intervention". To be precise, $X$ and $Y$ are random variables and the "effect" we want to know is how the distribution of $Y$ will change when we force $X$ to take a certain value. In the current context, I am using it to mean "What is the effect on $Y$ of changing $X$?" "Causality" is a vague, philosophical sounding word. The previous example demonstrates the old statistics saying: This removes the effect of any confounding variables which might be influencing the metric we care about.īecause we generated our dataset from a known process (in this case a function I wrote), we can intervene in it directly and measure the effect of an A/B test: Specifically, we want to randomize who gets cool hats and who doesn't, and look at the different values of $y$ we receive. The cleanest way to actually measure the effect of some change in a system is by running a randomized control trial. If the team lead does this they fundamentally change the system we are sampling from, potentially altering or even reversing any correlations we observed before. The problem comes if we try to use this information as an argument about whether or not the team lead should force people to wear cool hats. As long as we believe that they are "drawn from the same distribution" as our previous observations, we expect the same correlations to exist. We can use this information to make statements about what we might think about someone's probability if we see them wearing a cool hat. Being data drive, the Team Lead starts to record whether or not a team member wears a cool hat ($X=1$ for a cool hat, $X=0$ for no cool hat) and whether or not they are productive ($Y=1$ for productive, $Y=0$ for unproductive).Īfter making observations for a week, they end up with a dataset like the following: One day a team lead notices that some members of their team wear cool hats, and that these members of the team tend to be less productive. To begin, let's look at a motivating example. You can find the functions which generate these datasets in the accompanying file datagenerators.py on github here. samples from some distribution, returning the results as a pandas dataframe. 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